Film Friday: Oscar predictions

BEST ACTOR

Should win: Colin Firth

Will win: Colin Firth

Comments: What a run of jaw-dropping male performances we’ve had the past five years with Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Forest Whitaker, Daniel Day-Lewis, Sean Penn and Jeff Bridges. Firth fits in very well.

BEST ACTRESS

Should win: Hailee Steinfeld

Will win: Natalie Portman

Comments: Since Steinfeld is not nominated in the category she should be, Portman wins here with a performance that truly evoked madness.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should win: Christian Bale

Will win: Christian Bale

Comments: We’d be equally happy with a John Hawkes win here, but it’s about time the Academy realizes what moviegoers have known since "American Psycho," Bale is brilliant.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should win: Melissa Leo

Will win: Hailee Steinfeld

Comments: If you appear in every scene in a movie, you are a lead actress. An obvious stupid Academy trick here designed to ensure Steinfeld wins something.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should win: Christopher Nolan

Will win:Darren Aronofsky

Comments: Human beings have been telling stories for 6,000 years. In the past 15 years, Nolan has found not one, but two, new ways to tell them. His omission here is one of the biggest jokes in Oscar history. We’re going with Aronofsky just because we know it will set Cory Giger off.

BEST PICTURE

The contenders:

Black Swan

Dark fairy tale a little too demented for voter’s tastes

The Fighter

Amazing performances, but a story we’ve seen dozens of times

Inception

Part art film, part blockbuster, all amazing

The Kids Are All Right

A wonderful film with a wonderful message

The King’s Speech

Enjoyable (but typical) egghead story that Academy loves

127 Hours

Franco tour de force not enough to elevate this

The Social Network

Overrated, good film based on a great story

Toy Story 3

Underrated, should be a contender but Academy not ready

True Grit

Suffers because it’s not quite “Coen” enough

Winter’s Bone

If you live in poor, rural America, you know how great this movie is

Should win: Inception

Will win: The King’s Speech